Oil prices set for biggest Q1 gain since 2009 on US sanctions, OPEC cuts

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were at $59.56 per barrel at 0211 GMT, up 26 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last settlement.

Oil prices rose on Friday, pushed up by ongoing supply cuts led by producer club OPEC and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, putting the crude markets on pace to post their biggest first quarter gain since 2009.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were at $59.56 per barrel at 0211 GMT, up 26 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last settlement.

WTI futures are set to rise for a fourth straight week and are set for a first quarter gain of 31 percent.

Brent crude oil futures were up 30 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $68.12 per barrel. Brent futures are set to increase by 1.7 percent for the week and are set to climb by 27 percent for the first quarter.

For both futures contracts, the first quarter 2019 is the best performing quarter since the second quarter of 2009 when both gained about 40 percent.

Oil prices have been supported for much of 2019 by the efforts of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-affiliated allies like Russia, together known as OPEC+, who have pledged to withhold around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply this year to prop up markets.

"Production cuts from the OPEC+ group of producers have been the main reason for the dramatic recovery since the 38 percent price slump seen during the final quarter of last year," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

The price surge triggered a call by U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday for OPEC to boost production to lower prices.

"Very important that OPEC increase the flow of Oil. World Markets are fragile, price of Oil getting too high. Thank you!" Trump wrote in a post on Twitter.

OPEC+ are meeting in June to discuss whether to continue withholding supply or not.

OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia favours cuts for the full year while Russia, which only reluctantly joined the agreement, is seen to be less keen to keep holding back beyond September.

However, the OPEC+ cuts are not the only reason for rising oil prices this year, with analysts also pointing to U.S. sanctions on oil exporters and OPEC members Iran and Venezuela as reasons for the surge.

Despite the surging prices, analysts are expressing concerns about future oil demand amid worrying signs the global economy may move into a recession.

Saxo Bank's Hansen said "the biggest short-term risk to the oil market is likely to be driven by renewed stock market weakness."

Stock markets have been volatile this year amid signs of a sharp global economic slowdown.

"Business confidence has weakened in recent months ... (and) global manufacturing PMIs are about to move into contraction," Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note, although it added that "the services sector ... continues to expand unabated."

Given the OPEC+ cuts, however, Bank of America said it expected oil prices to rise in the short-term, with Brent prices forecast to average $74 per barrel in the second quarter.

Heading towards 2020, however, the bank warned of a recession.

Source: www.moneycontrol.com

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UPA or NDA, Nifty always bounces back from lows after election outcome

The rise or fall in the markets will be dictated by expectations or lack thereof of a stable govt coming into power post elections apart from other global factors impacting their direction.

If we start from the 2004 general elections, Nifty50 made a bottom in April 2003 and rose non-stop till January 2004. Post that, the index went sideways for 4 months and later fell in May 2004 as the NDA Govt got voted out of power.

The markets made a bottom in May 2004 post elections and later rallied 40.7 percent from the low point registered in the same month till the end of May 2005.

Foreign institutional investor (FII) activity, which was subdued till March 2003, picked up in the following three years gradually before falling again in 2006-07.2009 elections:

Post the Lehman sell-off, Nifty consolidated between November 2008 and March 2009. It later began to rise for the next two months in anticipation of the election outcome.

Nifty rose 61 percent from February-end to May-end. Post the results, Nifty rose only 14.3 percent from May 2009-end to May-2010 end.

FIIs were largely net sellers worth Rs 47,700 crore in 2008-09 on the back of Lehman crisis. However, in the succeeding year, they were large buyers to the tune of Rs 1,10,221 crore.

This was on the back of QE – 1 announced by the US Fed in November 2008, which was expanded in March 2009 (Nifty made a bottom on March 6, 2009).

2014 elections:

Nifty went sideways between November 2013 and February 2014. Nifty rose 15 percent from the end of February to end of May 2014. It rose 16.7 percent from May 2014-end to May 2015-end.

Markets were rising due to buying in large amounts by FIIs (2012-13 Rs 1,40,033 crore, 2013-14 – Rs 79,709 crore) due to falling commodity (including crude) prices, RBI cutting rates and generally easy liquidity across the world.

FPIs continued buying in 2014-15 (Rs 1,11,333 crore) partly due to NDA winning the Lok Sabha elections.

This bullish momentum came to a halt in March 2015 due to combination of factors like 12-year high USD rate, slowing Chinese economy and outcome of bank stress tests.

Now at the current Juncture- 2019 elections:

Between the end of November and end of February, Nifty closed flat on a monthly basis. In that respect, we are similar to the 2004 scenario (even then NDA was in power).

However, NDA lost the election in 2004 and Nifty fell sharply in May 2004 but rose thereafter. The difference is that in 2004, the sideways trend was during the election phase while in 2019, the sideways phase was before the election dates were announced.

In 2019, we are facing FII activity that is on the lower side (2017-18 +Rs 25,635 crore, 2018-19 –Rs 27,321 crore). Volatility will keep rising as election dates come closer.

The rise or fall in the markets will be dictated by expectations or lack thereof of a stable Govt coming into power post elections apart from other global factors impacting their direction.

In all elections, there is a severe reaction to the outcome of elections but later from the low levels, there is a decent recovery over the next year.

Investors have a choice as to whether they would wait till the election results are digested and then invest to be more sure of making money or they would prefer to invest ahead of the results (in which case they may have to face a fall during the election phase or after the elections). Traders who are nimble footed can do both – i.e. trade ahead of results and invest later.

If the Nifty rises well during the election phase, then the possibility of it rising post elections by a large margin will be low irrespective of the outcome, while if the Nifty remains sideways or corrects during the election phase and the outcome of election is favourable, then there are better chances of a smart up move therefrom.

The reaction of FIIs would be crucial as is evident from the way the frontline and mid/smallcap indices have behaved since February 22, 2019, when FIIs changed their stance on India in terms of flows from neutral to positive.

In all instances, Bank and Capital Goods indices have done well between the announcement date and result date. PSU and Realty indices are next.

Source:www.moneycontrol.com

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Bulls take charge on Street as Sensex rallies 1,000 pts in March; 5 factors driving the rally

In February, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) had invested a net amount of Rs 11,182 crore in the capital markets (both equity and debt)

The S&P BSE Sensex has rallied by over 1,000 points so far in March, excluding Tuesday’s smart rally of nearly 500 points, while Nifty50 has risen nearly 400 points in the same period.

Positive global, as well as domestic cues boosted risk-on rally on D-Street. Supported by a sharp rally, the market capitalisation (m-cap) of BSE-listed companies rose by Rs 6.52 lakh crore as of March 11 to Rs 146.93 lakh crore on Monday compared to Rs 140.41 lakh crore recorded on February 28.Strong buying from foreign investors:

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) poured in over Rs 3800 crore in Monday’s session taking total inflows to a little over Rs 8,000 crore so far in March which pushed the S&P BSE Sensex to a 6-month higher while the currency touched a fresh 2-month high.

FIIs were net buyers (equity & debt) in February as well as January 2019 for Rs 13,564 crore, and Rs 127 crore respectively, Moneycontrol.com data showed.

In February, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) had invested a net amount of Rs 11,182 crore in the capital markets (both equity and debt).

“FPI inflows into India has clearly turned positive since the end of Jan this year. The flows in February were the highest since November 2017. The trigger for this inflows is the dovish statement that came from the Fed at the end of January,” VK Vijayakumar Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services told Moneycontrol.

“The Fed had categorically stated that ‘the rate hikes are on hold’ in the context of the global slowdown. India, like other emerging markets, is receiving capital flows due to this trigger,” he said.

Opinion Polls say Modi may come back to power:

Indian markets rallied a day after Election Commission announced the final dates for Lok Sabha elections. The elections will begin on April 11 and polling will be held over seven phases till May 19, followed by counting of all votes on May 23.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will sweep a majority of parliamentary seats up for grabs in the election starting April 11, Reuters quoted CVoter opinion poll which was televised on a local channel over the weekend.

The coalition led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi could win 264 seats in the election compared to 141 for the Congress Party-led opposition alliance. A total of 543 seats are up for grabs in the election.

More opinion polls in the run-up to the final event are likely to ease concerns around a weak coalition and fuel rally in Indian markets, suggest experts.

“Markets have rallied post events in the border state which has certainly improved prospects of the ruling party in the upcoming general elections,” Dipan Mehta, Director, Elixir Equities told Moneycontrol.

“The trend may continue for a few more weeks, but large scale follow up buying is likely to emerge only if there is a favourable outcome in the Lok Sabha elections. Opinion polls leading up to the results will also impact the sentiment be it positive or negative,” he said.

Global Cues:

On Monday, US markets snapped 5-day losing streak. The gains were largely led by technology stocks. Asian shares rose after the European Commission agreed to changes in a Brexit deal ahead of a vote in the British parliament on a divorce agreement.

European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker agreed to additional assurances in an updated Brexit deal with British Prime Minister Theresa May on Monday, but warned UK lawmakers would not get a third chance to endorse it, said a Reuters report.

Rally in small & midcaps:

The broader market is one space which is attracting maximum attention. The S&P BSE Mid-cap index rose 5.4 percent while the S&P BSE Small-cap index gained 7.8 percent compared to 3.3 percent up move seen in the S&P BSE Sensex so far in March.

The value is emerging in select bottom-up opportunities in the mid-caps space, CLSA suggests in a note because, despite the recent recovery, the Mid-cap Index has still underperformed the Nifty on a year-to-date (YTD) basis.

The valuation discount to the Nifty now stands at 8.5 percent. The earnings downgrades for FY19 on Mid-caps have been significantly lower than Nifty which is positive.

“A sectoral analysis highlights that recent stock performance is led by sectors where investors perceive ‘value’. We highlight that 40 percent of Nifty Midcap universe is trading below its 5-year average valuation, particularly in the Industrial & EPC space,” said the CLSA note.

Technical Factors:

The S&P BSE Sensex closed above 37000 on Monday for the first time since September 19, 2018, while Nifty50 reclaimed 11,100 levels for the first time since September 21.

Continuing the momentum, the index reclaimed 11,200 levels for the first time since September 19, 2018. Investors should remain long on the index with a stop loss below 11000 levels, suggest experts.

The index is currently trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200-Day SMA. Oscillators and Indicators like DMI and MACD have turned bullish on the daily as well as weekly charts.

“The immediate resistance for the Nifty is seen at 11345, which happens to be 76.4 percent Fibonacci retracement of the fall seen from the all-time high 11,760 (Aug 2018 High) to 10,004 (Oct 2018 bottom),” Nandish Shah, Senior Technical & Derivatives Analyst, HDFC Securities told Moneycontrol.

“Support is now shifted upward to 11,000 for Nifty which was acting as resistance earlier. The Bank Nifty gained 0.74 percent to close at 27966 levels. Bank Nifty is only 1.5 percent away from its all-time high of 28388, registered in Aug 2018,” he said.

Shah further added that considering the technical and derivative evidence discussed above, we believe that one should remain optimistic in the Nifty with the stop loss of 11,000 levels.

Source: www.moneycontrol.com

For more details visit : www.investmentvisor.com 

Top stock cash tips & stock future tips

All stock cash tips, stock future tips, equity tips, nifty tips and commodity tips offered by investment visor researcher, don't trust on the stock market tips offered by your friend, and trust your senses when making an investment. Stock cash tips and Stock Future tips is risky but needs a lot of attention, update and one must be very quick in picking/buying and selling any stock. 

Top news of the day:-

Nifty hovers around 7900, Sensex weak; HDFC falls 2%

1:55 pm Result poll: Net profit of ICICI Bank is likely to rise 6.6 percent to Rs 3115.1 crore in January-March quarter from Rs 2922.1 crore in corresponding quarter last fiscal. According to a CNBC-TV18 poll, the private lender's net interest income may grow 9.6 percent at Rs 5565.2 crore in Q4 compared to Rs 5079.5 crore in year-ago period.

HCL Tech Q3 below estimates; net up 0.3%, $ revenue up 1.3%

 

According to a CNBC-TV18 poll, HCL Tech's net profit was expected at Rs 1963 crore, down 2.2 percent in January-March quarter. Dollar revenue was seen up 2.5 percent at USD 1604.5 million in Q3FY16 and rupee revenue was seen at Rs 10805 crore. Constant currency growth in Q3FY16 is seen at 3 percent.

Share market recommendations are based on technical or fundamental analysis, which are performed by those who are involved in share market research and who track the market with their technical or fundamental techniques. Basically a Fundamental analyst performs core research from company level analyzing its past performances.

In Conclusion, if you want to get into the stock cash tips, stock future tips, commodity tips and equity tips should get you started with your investing portfolio. If you're interested in learning more about the stock market, check out at: [http://investmentvisor.com/freetrial.php]

Stock cash tips: - The 12 most important tips to get started

All stock cash tips offered by investment visor specialist, don't trust on the stock market tips offered by your friend, the waiter at the restaurant or your brother in law, in other words trust your senses when making an investment. Your per-investment research should include careful analysis of the market trends, industry performance and the price fluctuations of a stock so that you can pick the winners. Here are some stock future tips that will help you to familiarize yourself with some important concepts of equity investments.

Tip #1: When you buy a stock you are purchasing partial ownership in a company; also known as shares; these stocks give you a right to a part of the company's profits and assets; however, you are exempt from any liabilities that the organization may incur through the course of business.

Tip #2: There are different types of stocks and they offer a variety of features. While choosing the type of shares, you should ensure that the stock meets your investment objectives. For instance, if you are looking for a regular income, you should choose stocks that give regular dividends. On the other hand, if you are looking for capital gains, you should choose stocks that have a potential for significant price increase in future.

Tip #3: The stock market is not very different from an auction house where the number of buyers interested in a particular object often determines the extent of price rise

Tip #4: Stock prices are prone to fluctuations and depending on the type of stock you invest in, you may witness quite a bit of volatility on a daily basis.

Tip #5: Companies only trade in their own stocks once; when they offer the share to the public for the first time through an IPO or initial public offering. Subsequently, the supply and demand factors for a particular stock and the company's performance sets the price of the shares without any interference from the company.

Tip #6: Stocks are traded through stock exchanges and the NYSE or the New York Stock exchange is the primary stock exchange in the country that has the highest number of blue chip companies listed on it.

Tip #7: There are two ways to purchase a stock, you can wither get in touch with a stock broking firm and open an account with them or you could enlist with an online stock broking firm and conduct stock trading and transactions online.

Tip #8: You will need documents such as your social security, proof of residence and identity to open an account with a stock broking firm.

Tip #9: The equities market works on a basic principle; that is a higher risk equates to a greater potential for reward; however, this principle does not always hold true.

Tip #10: You can get information on stocks through the stock charts and tables in your daily newspaper.

Tip #11: Do not invest in stocks with your life's savings or with the money needed for your basic expenditure; stock market investments should be undertaken with any surplus money that you have after you have taken care of your basic needs and savings.

Tip #12: If you are ready to try your luck in the equities market; it is essential to gather as much information as you can on stock analysis, investment strategies and the various tools used for the purpose from books, online articles etc.

In Conclusion, if you want to get into the stock cash tips, stock future tips, commodity tips and equity tips should get you started with your investing portfolio. If you're interested in learning more about the stock market, check out at: [http://investmentvisor.com/freetrial.php]

Stock Cash Tips | Stock Future Tips

Nowadays you are in stock market and want some money from share market then you have to invest your money in the right places with the right services. Stock Cash Tips in share market are the best service for those who want to invest money in share market and want to make some profit in short period of time and intraday base without spending much of their time in analyzing the stock market. Stock cash tips are nothing but simple buying or selling recommendations on scripts and stocks which arise from technical analysis or fundamental research.

Share market recommendations are based on technical or fundamental analysis, which are performed by those who are involved in share market research and who track the market with their technical or fundamental techniques. Basically a Fundamental analyst perform core research from company level analyzing its past performances, current position in market with global economic circumstances while a technical analyst provides trading tips (Generally for short term or day trading) by the analysis of charts.

Following features are necessary in Stock future tips

1- Stock future tips should have more than 80-85 accuracy rate (Monthly or weekly basis). Always remember that good equity tips have contains 80-90 accuracy.

2- Stock cash tips should reach you on time and not after trading periods.

3- Equity Tips should be based on technical analysis or fundamental analysis.

4- Stock Tips provider firms should be confirmed by recognized agencies or ISO certified.

5- Stock market tips should be unique not copied from others.

These recommendations can be chargeable or free it depends on investment visor services. Some research houses provide free stock future tips as free trial for two or three days, but after that they start charging for it. Traders can take these stock cash tips; stock future tips on their mobile phones or it can be retrieved through Internet.

SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India) has appreciations on research houses, but there are not sufficient limits and rules for blogs and sites on Internet to stop cheating and unethical posting (As Cyber law in India is not that much effective and very few number of people are aware of it). Traders should avoid such type of fake tips, fraud tips providers on Internet. They can even put-down out all your money without leaving any of their identity.

It is not necessary that equity tips are always correct because nobody can predict market with 100% accuracy, it changes at every single moment, a single piece of news can effect the market from Strong bullish trend to bearish and vice-versa. For best stock tips rely only on registered, recognized and popular research houses.

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Strategy of Stock Market

Stock cash tips is the service of Investment visor company by delivering shares and allowing holder for ownership interest, the buyer of that share owns a controlling share of company's stock.

• Common Stock- Common Stocks are equity ownership (Equity Tips), a type of security.
• Preferred Stock- Preferred Stocks also known as Preferred Shares or Preference Shares are special equity security and has higher ranking than common stock.

Stock market trader is generally a professional and aims to earn profit from short-term price volatility.

Stock Future Tips is a method of buying or selling securities, trading is done by using a cash account is a kind of brokerage account requires the payment for securities within 2 days from the date of purchase by the investor. Stock cash trading is less risky than margin trading.

Investment visor Strategies: - A general question- How and when to invest money? To choose a stock to invest in there are different techniques but two basic techniques are commonly used they are:-

1. Fundamental Analysis: - Analysis of financial statement of company found in business trends.

2. Technical Analysis: - Study of price movements in market with the help of charts & quantitative techniques. It helps to forecast price trends of company's financial prospects.

Stock cash and Stock Future trading is less risky but needs a lot of attention, update and one must be very quick in picking/buying and selling any stock. Conclusion is that, to overcome from these hectic and time consuming job one may avail services of some good advisory companies. Advisories provide 3-4 stocks recommendation for trading and what you have to do is only convey these recommendations to your broker.

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